Foreign platforms allow cross-border bets on Canadian elections despite regulations

Unregulated foreign betting platforms are currently allowing wagers on Canadian political events, creating an operational risk that bypasses established domestic financial controls. Despite Canada’s restrictions on such markets, over $600,000 USD was placed on US-based prediction market sites like Polymarket and Kalshi regarding the Toronto mayoral race.

This influx of capital into unregulated political forecasting raises concerns about market integrity. Prediction markets can be influenced by insiders and potentially sway public opinion, risks that are active despite the lack of a legal framework for these specific types of contracts in Canada. This tension is evident as industry experts recently debated the expansion of trading on politics at an IIC Canada conference.

While some policy voices dismiss prediction market utility, arguing that bet money never touches the broader economy, others fear a regulatory slide toward acceptance. The current environment is constrained by recent actions from Canada’s investment watchdog, which tightened rules to prevent brokers from advertising unavailable political markets.

For institutional investors and policy teams, this signals a rising need to gauge systemic risk posed by international financial instruments that operate outside domestic oversight. The ability of foreign platforms to target Canadian events underscores the gap between national regulatory intent and global market availability.